Today's Market Falls in Line

Looking at this post back in July, the May 2007 to May 2008 projection was a very good outlook.


The post looked at the decade of returns following a record setting decade. The mother of all decades was the May 1988 to May 1998 period, cruising at a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 16.7%. The post compared the three prior record-setting decades and subsequent decade returns. They all showed a dramatic drop off at the end of the subsequent decade.

Using the 1968-1969 returns, the last year of the subsequent decade returns, I placed a projected DOW to predict how the last year of the current subsequent decade would look. Placing this morning's low in the current week, one can see that the projection has been a great guidepost.

One can only conclude from this point some sideways consolidation and then a nice burst back to 13,000+; only to find a spring sell-off waiting after that rebound.